An uncertain road
The explosive issues plaguing the Middle East look no closer to being resolved. Nevine Khalil reports
While UN weapons inspectors search for Iraq's alleged stockpile of weapons of mass destruction, the peace process is nowhere near being relaunched ahead of next month's Israeli elections. It is uncertain whether the lull in regional diplomacy and lack of tangible progress on such volatile issues as Iraq and Palestine will push the region towards war, but the general atmosphere seems thick with warnings about -- and concern over -- what an attack on Iraq by the US might bring.
Egypt's position on Iraq remains that all parties involved in the standoff must observe and respect UN resolutions in goodwill and transparency. On the Palestinian issue, Cairo feels that negotiations need to be relaunched soon, and in accordance with the US-negotiated roadmap, since "Israel is exploiting the current vacuum to step up its aggression on the Palestinian people," as Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher put it on Sunday. Maher expressed his hopes that the diplomatic Quartet meeting which is scheduled for tomorrow (Friday) would reach "positive, tangible results", although he acknowledged that any real progress will not be possible before the Israeli elections in January. The Quartet, which includes the US, EU, Russia and the UN, is now unlikely to announce any concrete ideas on ways to implement the group's proposed roadmap back to peace before mid-January.
President Hosni Mubarak elaborated on the subject at a public rally in Aswan on Tuesday, saying he doubts any progress will be made before the next Israeli prime minister is chosen on 17 January. The president expressed his hope that the US -- "which has the most influence with Israel" -- will be able to reactivate the peace process. Mubarak also said that the Arabs are willing to work with either a right-wing Likud government or a less hawkish Labour party to achieve peace.
Mubarak said that Egypt exerts relentless efforts to help resolve the Palestinian problem, and despite what appear to be periods of "quiet" on the diplomatic front, "there are still huge efforts being made, whether publicly or discreetly." Recently, Egypt has been working on uniting the Palestinian factions, and attempting to end the violence being carried out by Palestinian groups. Mubarak noted that this would prevent Israel from using violence by Palestinian groups as a pretext not to relaunch negotiations. He added, however, that "violence will only end when the Palestinians feel there is hope and their land will be returned."
At Tuesday's rally, the president also spoke at length on the possibility of war in the region. He said that "any military attack on Iraq or uncalculated military adventure in the region would hinder any movement towards" the region's development. Mubarak argued that violence and terrorism would increase as a result of a sense of frustration and despair among the masses about the chronic ailments in the region "which were not remedied because of the lack of political will [amongst the players] needed to reach a just settlement."
Mubarak described the Iraqi issue as a "serious problem", with Cairo attempting to contain any possibility of friction or military confrontation by keeping in constant contact with the Americans, Iraqis and Europeans. He warned of the heavy loss of life which would occur if Iraq is attacked. "They want to remove one person [Saddam] or a dozen others from power, but in the process they might kill 20,000 or 50,000 people," the president said. "We call on foreign powers to be aware that war means death and destruction, and that these will feed into popular sympathy amongst Arabs and Muslims for the Iraqi people." At the same time, Mubarak urged Iraq to continue to cooperate with the UN inspectors in order to avoid military strikes; Mubarak's advice to Baghdad was: "Don't obstruct the work of the inspectors... this is your last chance... otherwise they will attack."
Ahead of his public statements, Mubarak had chaired a closed-door Saturday meeting of his foreign policy and military aides. The president was briefed on several reports regarding the regional situation, including the ongoing Israeli incursions and aggressions against the Palestinians, UN inspections in Iraq and the declaration regarding its weapons' programmes that Baghdad submitted to the UN last week.
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : 19 - 25 December 2002 (Issue No. 617)
Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2002/617/eg9.htm