A man with a plan
Although Ankara's dream of joining the EU is on hold, Turkey's prime minister claims to have a 'Plan B' ready to put into action. Gareth Jenkins reports
Turkey's hopes of imminent EU accession received a setback on Friday when a European Union Council summit meeting in Copenhagen voted to postpone opening membership negotiations with the country until at least December 2004.
The EU's decision came after weeks of intense lobbying from both Ankara and the US, which is anxious to secure Turkish support for its forthcoming military campaign against Iraq. Not only did the lobbying fail but it also fuelled anti-American sentiment in Europe, where the US is being seen as meddling in EU internal affairs. The postponement has also exposed the inexperience and lack of diplomatic finesse of Turkey's new government.
At the beginning of last week, as it became clear that the EU was not going to give Ankara a firm date for the opening of membership negotiations, Tayyip Erdogan, chairman of the ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP), bluntly accused the EU of applying a double standard. He claimed that Turkey had now fulfilled all the criteria for membership and that the EU's often repeated doubts about Turkey's human rights record and restrictions on freedom of speech were mere camouflage for religious and racial prejudice. Ironically, though, Erdogan himself remains banned from holding public office in Turkey for reciting a poem deemed to be seditious by the country's hard- line secular establishment.
Turkish Prime Minister Abdullah Gul, meanwhile, warned the EU that it would live to regret failing to provide Turkey with a firm date. "The EU is not Turkey's only option," Erdogan said. "If they don't give us the date we want then we shall implement our Plan B," he added, although declining to give details about the alternative course of action.
Erdogan's claims were dismissed by Swedish Prime Minister Goran Persson. "In December 2004 we will, on the basis of a [European] Commission report, make an assessment of whether Turkey meets the Copenhagen criteria," he said, referring to EU standards on democracy and human rights.
EU leaders did little to hide their dismay at Erdogan's often hectoring tone. "Some states which were rather open towards Turkey have been very shocked by the blackmail campaign of these last days. Mr Erdogan has had very counter-productive behaviour," one EU prime minister told Reuters.
French Prime Minister Jacques Chirac told a summit dinner: "It's not enough to respect European law, you also have to be polite and civilised."
But probably more damaging than the aggressive tone adopted by Turkey's leaders in the run-up to the summit was Ankara's refusal to apply pressure for a settlement of the 28 year-old Cyprus problem. Cyprus has been divided along ethnic lines since a Turkish invasion of the island in 1974. The north of the island is currently administered by the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which has only been recognised by Turkey.
At Copenhagen the EU announced that the Greek-Cypriot administered Republic of Cyprus would be granted full EU membership in the name of the whole island in May 2004, rejecting Turkish calls for its accession to be postponed pending a solution to the division of the island. Although the EU has often been exasperated by Greek-Cypriot intransigence in the past, there is now a consensus that the main obstacle to a solution is Turkish-Cypriot leader Raouf Denktas and his backers in Ankara.
"For years Denktas has either refused to attend negotiations or, when he has, he has tried to avoid talking about anything substantive," complained an independent source close to the negotiations.
On Friday the EU gave the Turkish Cypriots a deadline of the end of February 2003 to reach a settlement. But Denktas responded by rejecting a peace plan drawn up by UN Secretary- General Kofi Annan as the basis for a settlement and accused the EU of "trying to possess Cyprus".
Turkey currently has around 30,000 troops permanently based in the TRNC. If there is no settlement and the Greek Cypriots join the EU in May 2004, the Turkish soldiers in the TRNC will, under international law, constitute an army of occupation on part of EU territory. Under the EU's current rules, every member state has a right of veto. Even if Turkey fulfils all of the criteria for EU accession, once they have joined the bloc, the Greek Cypriots can be expected to block Turkish membership until Turkey withdraws from the north of the island -- something which Ankara insists it will never do. The result could be to make Turkey's exclusion from the EU permanent, with potentially severe consequences for both the Turkish public and the region.
"You shouldn't believe what the politicians say about having other alternatives or a Plan B," said a Turkish official. "Who else are we going to co-operate with? The Arabs distrust us because of our ties with Israel and Israel alone cannot meet our needs, particularly in the economy. Whatever anyone may say, the EU is the only game in town for us."
But some Turkish nationalists make no secret that they would welcome a downgrading of ties with the EU. "We are always worried about what the EU will say and how what we do will affect our relations, whether it is about how we deal with domestic terrorists or what we do in northern Iraq," said one leading ultra- nationalist.
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : 19 - 25 December 2002 (Issue No. 617)
Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2002/617/re8.htm