Bringing peace to Somalia
Dina Ezzat explores the Arab League's new mandate to solve the Somali crisis
This week's Arab summit in Sharm El- Sheikh adopted a resolution involving Arab countries in ending the long and devastating civil strife in Somalia. The resolution, which emphasised the importance of maintaining the unity and territorial integrity of Somalia, entrusted the Arab League with a new mission to bring peace and stability to the war- wrecked member state.
The Arab League is now requested by the summit to formulate a programme to disarm the warring Somali factions. This task is to be undertaken by the league in cooperation with the UN, the African Union, the Inter- Governmental African Development Agency (IGAD) and the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC).
For the mission to succeed, a peace deal must be sealed between two dozen Somali warring factions, some of whom are adamantly opposed to the prospect of sharing power with the current national transition government appointed by the Eaden Peace Conference some three years ago.
The Arab League is also expected to shoulder the task of conducting consultations with regional and international organisations interested in the Somali dossier, in order to formulate a mechanism to coordinate efforts to solve the problems in Somalia.
This new mandate was subject to discussion at a post-Arab summit meeting in Sharm El- Sheikh between the Somali transitional president, Hassan Salad, and Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa. Salad underlined his country's desire to work with the Arab League and asked that the organisation's member states honour their commitment to provide aid to the Somali people.
While saying he will continue to work with the Kenya-sponsored conference for peace in Somalia, he pointed out that enough funds must be made available to his government to spend on infrastructure and day-to-day needs for the Somali people.
Although the Arab League had promised Somalia nearly $54 million in aid, so far, only half this amount has been disbursed. Samir Hosni, head of the African desk at the Arab League, said that Moussa promised Salad he will appeal to the member states of the Arab organisation to fulfil their obligations to Somalia. Meanwhile, Moussa has called on his personal envoy to Somalia, Salem El- Khosseiby, to consult with the Kenyan government, IGAD and other countries and organisations interested in the Somali problem to explore ways of pushing forward the Somali peace conference.
The peace conference, which has been convening irregularly for the past six months in the Kenyan city of Eldoret, has been suspended for a few weeks due to the transition of power in Kenya. The conference was also interrupted by a fresh wave of disagreement among the 24 participating factions over issues related to the establishment of a federal government, a Somali charter and the re- establishment of the devastated Somali state. Plaguing the conference were complaints from almost all participating factions over its management by the Kenyan envoy.
Recently, the new Kenyan government appointed a new envoy and brought the conference works closer to the capital to ensure the active participation of senior Kenyan officials in facilitating the talks. This momentum, however, is being hampered by the lack of funds required to support the conference. The Arab League is currently exploring potential fundraising avenues under a tight time constraint. "Peace efforts need to be given a push particularly in view of the fact that the three- year term of the national transitional government of Mr Salad will expire in less than six months and there is no clear plan of what will happen next," Hosni said.
A number of scenarios are envisioned as the term of Salad expires next August. In an ideal situation, ongoing peace efforts will culminate in a peace deal that allows for the sharing of power under a federal umbrella and calls on the international community to honour its commitments to help fund the reconstruction of Somalia. In a less optimistic scenario, the 24 Somali factions might conclude they have had enough of the Kenya- sponsored peace conference and decide, as some have already been arguing, to hold their own conference in Somalia, excluding the self-declared independent parts of the country from representation. Alternatively, Salad may decide to take matters into his own hands and distribute power among the different factions. And, in a worst case scenario, violence may be resumed and the Salad government overthrown.
A key factor in determining the future of Somalia is the American stance. The US is keeping a close eye on the Somali peace talks. Sources say it is also engaging a few of these factions in talks over the future rule of the country. Some believe Washington is planning to bring its diplomatic weight down, through the Kenyan mediation, to push peace forward in the same way it did with Sudan last year with the signing of the Machakos Peace Protocols between the Sudanese government and its armed southern opposition.
"It is not clear yet what the US has in mind in relation to Somalia," said one informed source. He added that the US administration has expressed dissatisfaction with the level of cooperation it is receiving from Salad in the war against terrorism. The US, the source said, might decide to replace Salad if he does not respond more positively to American demands.
"There are so many scenarios that are being discussed," Hosni said, adding that an Arab League committee on Somalia is planning a meeting soon to explore potential avenues of work in view of the summit mandate.
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : 6 - 12 March 2003 (Issue No. 628)
Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2003/628/re4.htm