A necessary evil?
Turkish Cypriots poison relations between Turkey and Europe in the short-run, but in the longer term, they might prompt Turkey to pull out of Cyprus, reports Michael Jansen from Nicosia
As Cyprus prepares to enter the European Union (EU), the Turkish-controlled north of the country is seething with resentment and threatening rebellion.
The Turkish Cypriot opposition, which represents the majority of the community, is threatening to mount a
sustained campaign to protest the rejection by Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash and Ankara of a referendum on a UN plan to reunite the divided island ahead of its accession to the EU.
According to the opposition daily Africa, an emergency action plan could include a boycott of parliament by the three opposition parties, which have 22 of the 48 seats, strikes, rolling demonstrations and lawsuits in the European Court of Human Rights claiming that Turkish Cypriot rights have been violated by the refusal of a popular consultation.
Africa also said Turkish Cypriots should make it clear to Denktash and Ankara that unless the UN plan, put forward last November by Secretary General Kofi Annan, is accepted by 16 April, the opposition will brand Turkey as an "occupying power".
Cyprus is set to sign the EU accession agreement on 16 April and become a full member of the Union in May 2004, with or without the Turkish Cypriots. Opposition figures are planning to hold a rebel referendum on 30 March in the Turkish-controlled north and have asked for UN and EU supervision.
After 20 hours of fruitless talks at The Hague with Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos and Denktash, Annan announced on 11 March that his efforts had "reached the end of the road". Last month he gave the two leaders until the 10th to agree to hold separate, simultaneous referenda on the 30th on a settlement plan for a Swiss-style federation of two largely autonomous constituent states linked by a weak central authority.
Before the three-way encounter, Annan warned the Cypriots that "decision time" had arrived. "The choice is not between my plan and a radically different one. The choice is between my plan and no solution at all."
At dawn on the 11th, Annan said that Papadopoulos was ready for a referendum "as long as the people knew what they are being asked to vote on" and legislative gaps were filled. Annan said that Denktash answered that he was not prepared to agree to put the plan to referendum. Denktash said he had fundamental objections to the plan and believed that further negotiations were only likely to be successful if they began from "a new starting point".
"The plan was unacceptable," Denktash said. "This was not a plan we could ask our people to vote for."
Backed by the immovable Turkish military, the political establishment and the bureaucracy, Denktash took this stand in spite of the fact that the overwhelming majority of Turkish Cypriots support the Annan plan and have staged three mass rallies over
the past three months calling for Denktash to resign. This decision was also unpopular on the mainland, where there is strong backing for the Annan plan in the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), the pro-EU
sectors of the populace and the press. Many Turks had hoped that the dramatic electoral success of the AKP in last November's election and its formation of a single-party government would herald real democracy in Turkey, where the military has dominated political
life since the founding of the modern republic in 1923. Although the AKP initially supported the Annan
plan, the party was forced to accept Denktash's hard line.
Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis, who worked hard for a Cyprus settlement as well as for rapprochement with Turkey, observed: "[As long as] the Cyprus problem remains open and without a solution, there can be no European prospect for Turkey."
Indeed, a leading Turkish Cypriot opposition figure, Mustafa Akinci, said that Ankara, which calls the shots in Cyprus, backed Denktash's rejectionist stance because the "Turkish establishment doesn't want real democracy...The army doesn't want to see [its] power watered down by EU-instigated reforms. The reality is that Turkey is unable to sort out its own problems. It can't create the conditions for initiating change."
He charged that Ankara has "no strategy to defend its own interests, let alone those of the Turkish Cypriots."
Therefore, unless there is a dramatic shift in Ankara, Cyprus is set to join the EU without the Turkish Cypriots.
The scenario for the future is to be expected. EU laws and regulations will come into force in the south, but not in the Turkish Cypriot north. The breakaway state will remain unrecognised and the economic boycott and blockade, instituted after Turkey occupied the area in 1974, will remain in force and could even be intensified. Turkish Cypriots, whose numbers have been reduced by emigration from 18 to 11 per cent of the population since then, will continue to leave. Mainland Turkish settlers, already the majority, will rule the roost. The EU will regard the whole of the island as EU territory and the 35 to 40,000 Turkish soldiers deployed in the north will be viewed as illegal occupation forces.
This will seriously strain relations between the EU and Turkey and, as Simitis said, put Ankara's candidacy on hold. While this suits the Turkish politico-military establishment, Turkish analysts argue that it will, ultimately, have to withdraw from Cyprus and that rejection of the Annan plan means that any new deal will exact greater sacrifices from the Turkish Cypriots.
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : 20 - 26 March 2003 (Issue No. 630)
Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2003/630/int3.htm