Stocking up for war
The US attack on Iraq is putting pressure on Egyptian businesses and pushing worried consumers to the supermarkets. Yasmine El-Rashidi listens in to the echoes of war on the streets of Cairo
The news on Thursday morning looked deceptively like that on most other days this year. There were images of planes, fire and soldiers, and talk of Iraq, Bush, and the Middle East.
The streets, too, were remarkably unchanged in most parts of town. From the perspective of a muted media channel, the only real cue of striking global change were the figures ticking across the screen: the US equity markets were up slightly over 15 per cent in just a couple of weeks -- with a jump again that morning -- and Wall Street was having a remarkably good day.
But as the day went on, and the "breaking news" banners embossed themselves on television screens across the globe, the images of Kuwait City, Iraq, and US military bases brought to face the reality. Several hours after the first missiles hit Northern Iraq, the streets in Kuwait City were shown to be deserted. CNN images revealed that the people had fled from potential danger -- some into their homes, but most, into the stores to stock up.
"We've been through this before," one Kuwaiti woman was televised telling the press. "We need to stock up on as much as we can -- food, water, batteries."
Cairenes were similarly quick to assess how they would be affected by the war.
"It's terrible news and God only knows what is to come," said Mohamed Ali, a kiosk owner on Al-Azhar Street in old Cairo's Khan Al- Khalili area of town. "Of course we worry what will happen and that it will hit the economy, but I don't think it will affect me in a very bad way."
Business, he said, is already down compared to a couple of years ago. "Most of my business comes from workers in the area, but I also do get the occasional tourist who buys a packet of gum, sometimes some cigarettes -- not much," Ali said. "All my products are Egyptian, so I won't be affected like others. My prices won't go up, but at least they won't be boycott. I think, God willing, I'll be okay."
Others know they are in for trouble. "People don't realise what a big impact this has on us," said carpenter Sami Hegazi. "Egypt doesn't have any wood; it's all imported. The price of wood has gone up in the past few months, and it will keep rising unless this region gains stability. As the pound weakens against foreign currencies, our work gets harder."
Before, a bookshelf used to cost LE400 to manufacture -- materials and labour included. Now, the materials alone cost LE380, he said.
"If we want to make a profit, we have to ask our customers to pay so much more than they were paying a few months ago," Hegazi said. "So we raised prices by only 30 or 40 pounds, which doesn't bring in much profit, but at least covers our food and transportation for the week."
Meanwhile, a flurry in the wood market is expected in the coming weeks, with the likes of Hegazi pooling their resources to stock up on planks.
"We have no choice," he said. "It will put a strain on us until the orders are finished and we receive our payments, but I suppose it's our destiny to be in this situation at this time."
Upholsterers are on the same boat. "The structures of all sofas and chairs is made of wood," said Ashraf Salama, an upholsterer. "Even if the customer brings in the fabric and the cotton, the price of the wood will still push costs up."
As prices rise, sales in certain sectors take a nose-dive. The car market is a case in point. Dealers say the prospects of the market picking up in the near future remain bleak.
"People don't want to spend so much money when the future is uncertain," said Hisham Sweify of Sweify cars. "Things are bad. Very bad."
Matters are not as clear-cut in other areas of the local economy. The status of imported goods lying on supermarket shelves, for example, is difficult to assess.
"American goods are already expensive compared to local ones," said Mohamed Marzouk of Kimo supermarket. "If their prices rise, the people that could afford to buy them before will still be able to afford to buy them now."
The question, then, lies in whether the war will be the catalyst to boycott more stringently, or stock up strategically.
"The people who buy imported biscuits and breakfast foods [cereal] aren't the one's who are very active about boycotting goods," Marzouk says. "At least I don't think so."
His real, politely put point, is that those who buy the luxury goods will be more concerned with stocking up on the goodies in case they run out.
In the Cairo suburb of Maadi -- also known as "Little America" -- the consumer market is witnessing a slight change.
"People are buying canned foods in bulk," said a cashier at Maadi's Abu-Zekri -- a national chain wholesaler. "They usually buy in quantity, but not like this. They worry."
Egyptians, it seems, cannot afford to worry as much.
"We can barely feed our families week to week," said Hisham Abdel-Hamid as he shops for groceries at Gam'iyya 2000, one of the national wholesale stores. "We can't buy for a month. It's a minority that can."
Even if people are worried that prices will go up and the commodity market will show no mercy, the majority of the nation's estimated 70 million population have little choice when it comes to precautions. The right to choose is an option that few can afford.
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : 27 March - 2 April 2003 (Issue No. 631)
Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2003/631/ec2.htm