Bracing for the worst
The Iraqi opposition in exile may have been manipulating the expectations of their US patrons, Iraqi analysts told Omayma Abdel-Latif
With the first week of the US-led military aggression on Iraq drawing to a close and unexpected challenges for invading forces, leading Iraqi figures speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly expressed fears that the continued Iraqi resistance might push the US to finish the war at any cost by unleashing forces of hi-tech terror from which the civilian population would be its first and foremost causality. "This is the most extremely worrying situation. The war is not going well for everybody," Dr Leith Kubba, a prominent Iraqi analyst at the Washington-based think-tank the National Endowment for Democracy, said in a telephone interview from Washington on Monday. Kubba, who is closely connected with the Iraqi opposition in exile, warned that fears were growing among Iraqis in exile that the civilian population may pay a heavy price for a war that has not gone as planned. Signs of this were beginning to show this week when the allied troops, after encountering stiff resistance in Basra, Iraq's second largest city with one million inhabitants, decided to make Basra a military target.
While not doubting that the US could win the war militarily, Kubba believes that the US cannot continue with its current strategy. "The US has two options," Kubba said. It could proceed slowly and wait for the regime to collapse, which could mean that the war would drag on and a political backlash might ensue. Or, he said, "The second option, which frightens us, is that the US could abandon its policy of aiming at specific targets and instead rely on a heavy use of force, thus causing destruction to the country's infrastructure. In this case the civilians will pay the heaviest price." Kubba's fears were shared by other members of the Iraqi opposition, who also expressed concern over possible retaliatory actions by the US to avenge unexpected losses.
As the military operation enters its second week and as the Iraqi resistance continues, a question has arisen in regards to whether some sections of the Iraqi opposition in exile have painted an unrealistic picture of Iraq for their US patrons. Prior to the launch of the military strikes, it was repeatedly suggested in some western media outlets that the Iraqi Shi'ite population in the south and the Kurdish groups in northern Iraq could be helpful to US efforts to topple the Iraqi regime. But one week later, the south did not rise against Saddam, the population remains defiant and the regime is still standing its ground.
Kubba laid the brunt of the blame for these assumptions on some sections of the Iraqi opposition, particularly those associated with the Iraq National Congress (INC) which, he says, have "misled their US contacts". His views were shared by Kamil Al-Mahdi, a professor of Middle East Economics at Exeter University and a member of the liberal Iraqi opposition in exile. Al-Mahdi believes that the resistance to the Iraqis inside the country will embarrass those groups of the opposition who allied themselves with the Bush administration. These groups, says Al-Mahdi, created assumptions about a regime on the verge of imploding once the US forces enter Iraq. "There were those within the ranks of the Iraqi opposition who portrayed this war to be a walk in the park for the allied troops. Hence, Americans were led to believe that the Republican Guard units would soon switch sides and this would be coupled with a Shi'ite uprising in the south against Saddam. But to their surprise, this did not materialise, at least until now."
Al-Mahdi said that the fact that the opposition in exile miscalculated the strength of the Iraqi resistance is strong proof of how they have lost touch with reality in Iraq. "They can no longer claim to say they represent either the interests or the will of the Iraqi people. It will be very difficult to impose them as the new rulers of Iraq after Saddam is gone," Al-Mahdi said. There were no comments made by any of the main Iraqi opposition factions in exile about the duration of the battle. But on wednesday the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper reported that representatives of various factions of the Iraqi opposition held secret rounds of talks to discuss the role of the Iraqi opposition in the aftermath of the war and the US exclusion of the Iraqi opposition from any talks on the post-war order. The meetings were attended by representatives from the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), Patriotic Unionist party (PUK), the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and Ahmed Chalabi of the Iraqi National Congree (INC). The statement issued spoke about "an interim authority which will run the country after the fall of Saddam regime". This, however, is likely to dominate the talks which are due to be held between British Prime Minister Tony Blair and US president George Bush at Camp David on Thursday. In a press conference held on Tuesday, Blair insisted that the US remains committed to full UN involvment in the economic and political reconstruction of Iraq and that the role of the UN will not be restricted to humanitarian work. Press reports, however, spoke of "a difference in tone" between the White House and Downing street vis-à-vis the post-war order. While Blair clearly wants a role for the UN in the reconstruction process of Iraq, the US administration's post-war plans reveal that the UN role should be confined to the humanitarian aspects at least in the initial stages.
The British newspaper the Times revealed last week that a secret Whitehall unit, a special inter-ministerial Iraq planning unit, has been working for weeks with the Pentagon to overthrow President Saddam Hussein and install a military administration. According to the Times, most of the key posts in the future Iraqi civil service will be held by former American generals, diplomats and aid workers who "will report directly to the Pentagon". This was confirmed by a news report in the New York Times on Tuesday, which stated that the US administration was going ahead with its plans for what it described as "a civil peace-keeping operation under the direction of Jay Garner, the retired general who directs the Pentagon's new Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance" and who is known for his close contacts with Israel's hard line government.
This raises speculation that the UN might be denied a role in the post-Saddam state, at least in the initial stages, which could last for months. Press reports also said that the Pentagon has already assigned key posts in the future civil service, including regional administrators who would effectively control the old Ottoman empire governorates of Mosul, Baghdad and Basra. They will each have a core staff of about 12 people who will work with the approximately 100 "free Iraqis" who are being recruited from exiled groups and inside the country.
In response to these reports, Kubba said that the US -- as an occupying force -- is responsible by international law to run Iraq and maintain law and order until an Iraqi civilian administration is formed. "Our expectations as Iraqi opposition are that since there will not be an authority in Baghdad, the US will have to be responsible for a short time -- a few weeks up to two months -- and then pass it [control] on to an Iraqi interim authority," Kubba said. In a bid to step up efforts to achieve this goal, a meeting of the Iraqi opposition, which will bring together 400 to 500 Iraqi intellectuals, politicians and opposition figures in exile, is scheduled to be held on Saturday in London. They will issue what Mohamed Al-Taher, president of Association of Iraqi Democrats, a London-based organisation called the National Project for Democracy in Iraq. Al-Taher said that those attending the meeting will put forward a request on behalf of the Iraqi people to the UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to call for a UN mandate to run the affairs of Iraq. "We will face a situation in which there will be an American occupation of Iraq and we expect this occupation to be short. Therefore, we will work towards formulating a civil administration made up of Iraqis from across the political spectrum," Al-Taher told the Weekly on Tuesday.
He dismissed the idea that there was coordination with the Americans at this stage but pointed out, however, that there will be "an American representation" in the London meeting. "Elections will be held during the meeting to appoint a legitimate leadership which could speak on behalf of the Iraqi people and be involved in the formulation of the interim authority until a free election is held in Iraq," he said.
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : 27 March - 2 April 2003 (Issue No. 631)
Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2003/631/sc6.htm