Waiting for the refugees
The expected influx of Iraqi refugees fleeing the war hasn't happened -- yet. But, as Rasha Saad reports, UNHCR is preparing for a worst-case scenario
Despite the daily news of the heavy bombardments of several parts of Iraq, the expected exodus of Iraqi refugees has not yet occurred.
The first officially recognised Iraqi arrivals since the war in Iraq began entered Syria on Sunday. The 14 Iraqi refugees arrived northwest of Mosel in Iraq and were taken to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) camps in Al-Hol, Syria. Neighbouring countries such as Turkey, Iran and Jordan have reported no Iraqi arrivals at their borders as of Tuesday, 25 March.
The number of Iraqis fleeing the fighting is small in comparison with the 1.8 million who fled after the start of the 1991 Gulf War and with UNHCR's planning figure of 600,000 Iraqi refugees.
According to Hinzadah Fikry, UNHCR senior regional public information officer for the Middle East and North Africa, one of the reasons why there are relatively few refugees leaving Iraq is that at the time of the 1991 Gulf War, the Iraqi people had more money and resources enabling them to flee.
Other possible hurdles might be the danger of the roads leading to the borders, many of which may be under fire. The military on both sides of the conflict may also be hindering the movement of displaced people.
The patriotism of the Iraqi people in defying the US war may also make more Iraqis unwilling to leave their country. A 32- year-old Iraqi driver recently told the Associated Press that Iraqi authorities were not banning people from leaving the country and said that Iraqis have chosen to stay. "Iraqis are not afraid. Nobody wants to leave their country, their homes."
However, an increase in the number of refugees is expected if the US and British forces move closer to Baghdad. "It [the exodus of refugees] very much depends on the military situation, and how [much] closer they [US and British troops] get into Baghdad. We are monitoring that situation very carefully in case there is a real outbreak of military action," Fikry told Al-Ahram Weekly.
Meanwhile, hundreds of third country nationals -- those who are neither Iraqi nor Jordanian -- have left Iraq and arrived at the Jordanian borders since the war erupted. On Saturday a number of Somali students who were studying in Mosel and Baghdad were allowed into Jordan and are currently sheltered at what is known as a third country national (TCN) camp managed by the International Organisation for Migration. The UNHCR has also established two camps on the Jordanian border. One of them was specified for the Iraqis and the other for third country nationals.
In addition to the Somali students, approximately 400 Sudanese, some Egyptians and Eritrians were among the first arrivals at the Jordanian border. Most of the Sudanese have been sent back to Sudan. However, some of the Somalis and Sudanese said they were unwilling to return to their own, war-torn countries.
The northern Kurdish areas of Iraq, however, have witnessed major internal displacement. According to reports, up to half a million Iraqi Kurds fled their cities for villages in the far east of the country. The city of Dahuk, near the Turkish border, was described as "almost depopulated", and people have poured out of Arbil and the key oil hub of Kirkuk in northern Iraq. The UN estimated there were 350,000 to 450,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the north.
The Iraqi Kurds, 500,000 of whom flooded across the border to Turkey to escape an Iraqi military crackdown on a Kurdish rebellion during the 1991 Gulf War, are not expected to enter Turkey during the current conflict at least in part because Turkish officials have said they will not permit refugees to enter Turkey. Instead, they have prepared sites for refugees within Kurdish- controlled areas of northern Iraq. The Turkish government has warned that a surge of Kurdish refugees would justify military intervention by Turkey.
On the other hand, a great number of the Iraqi Shi'ite pilgrims who arrived in Syria during the past four weeks to visit Shi'ite shrines decided to remain in Syria, saying that they would return to Iraq when the war is over.
Despite the lower-than expected number of Iraqi refugees, the UNHCR has been on alert for a worst-case scenario. The UNHCR has been making emergency preparations for the past several months. With a planning figure of 600,000 refugees from Iraq, the UN refugee agency prepared a budget of $60 million. According to Fikry, however, a lack of funding is still posing a problem. "We did not collect the whole amount. We've received $21 million and borrowed from other budget items seven [million] more. We actually spent $28 million and our camps are ready to receive about 300,000 refugees at this point," she said.
Fikry added that there is a slow influx of cash, estimated now at $4 million, from donor countries which were reluctant to contribute before the war started.
The UNHCR is working closely with governments, international and national organisations such as the Red Cross, the Red Crescent, and other UN organisations. The various agencies have been coordinating efforts to organise relief and construct and equip camps.
To make it easier for the Iraqis, the UNHCR's chief, Ruud Lubbers, issued a call on Sunday for all countries of the world to postpone for three months any decision concerning the cases of Iraqi asylum seekers or refugees -- the ones who fled Iraq before the war and those who may flee in the coming weeks.
The UNHCR "will not deal with individual cases of asylum seekers or refugee status as we usually do. We will allow them [without going through formal procedures] to help smooth movement in case there are large numbers of people fleeing Iraq," said Fikry.
Lubbers issued an appeal at the beginning of March urging the governments of countries neighbouring Iraq to open their borders and offer protection and assistance to refugees. Lubbers also asked them to allow UNHCR access to the borders so that the agency can monitor the situation and protection of asylum seekers.
There are around 51,000 Iraqi asylum seekers in 19 countries, and 400,000 Iraqi recognised refugees worldwide before the outbreak of this war. Half of these refugees are in Iran.
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : 27 March - 2 April 2003 (Issue No. 631)
Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2003/631/sc9.htm