New challenges face the NDP
As the military campaign in Iraq begins to subside, the ruling NDP still has plenty to worry about. Gamal Essam El-Din reports
Many prominent members of Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) believe that the relatively rapid and easy defeat of Saddam Hussein means "the party will at last be relieved of the headache of anti-war demonstrations, calls for jihad, and clashes with -- and arrests of -- political opponents," in the words of one NDP MP.
"At one point," said the MP, "demonstrators chanted anti-government slogans and vandalised the party's headquarters in Cairo's Tahrir Square."
Even with the war practically over, however, "the political jitters resulting from Hussein's downfall are sure to reverberate for many years to come," Ahmed Abu-Zeid, chairman of parliament's Arab Affairs Committee, told the Weekly. At the same time, Abu-Zeid said it was "equally true that as soon as Saddam was forced out of power, the chances of restructuring inter- Arab political relations improved."
It is that potentially complex dynamic which looks to guide the NDP in the coming phase. "The swift collapse [of the regime] in Iraq was beyond everyone's imagination, even the United States and Britain," said NDP chairman, President Hosni Mubarak, on 10 April. "I cannot say that the Arab region will be different after the end of the war. The Arab region, however, has many lessons to draw from the conflict, the most paramount of which is the need for rapid modernisation," Mubarak said.
NDP Secretary-General Safwat El-Sherif also argued that the Arab political system urgently needed reform, which El-Sherif said would come about via a "mutual understanding among Arabs", and "by striking a balance between the interests of the Arab world as a whole and the national interests of each individual Arab country".
In an urgent 12 April meeting with senior NDP members, President Mubarak implicitly blamed the defunct Iraqi regime for the suffering of the Iraqi people. "I tried my best to alert the Iraqi regime to the dangers of modern wars based on technology and missiles. We were keen to inform them of all the facts so that they could be more aware of the gravity of the situation and not let it turn into a military confrontation. I asked them to be more realistic. They said they would go to war because they have six million armed fighters with which to defend Iraq. The swift capture of Baghdad has shown that the regime has gravely miscalculated the situation," Mubarak said. He attributed the looting which followed the fall of Baghdad to the long years of oppression from which the Iraqis had been suffering.
At the same time, senior NDP leaders and MPs were keen to show that they are not reverting to the "blame Iraq" stance that the party adopted in the first week of war, then quickly abandoned after the Iraqis began resisting the invading forces. According to a senior NDP MP who spoke to the Weekly, "the party cannot say or show that it is delighted by the fall of the regime in Iraq. This could give our critics the chance to claim that Egypt's leading party's position has been in favour of the Anglo- American invasion of Iraq, or even in support of America's new colonial wars in the Arab world."
Other NDP members agreed that the best description of the party's stance at this time is that it is torn between jubilation and dismay. It is no secret that most Egyptian politicians, especially those of the NDP, are aware of the deep scar that Baghdad's defeat will leave across the face of the Arab world. They are primarily concerned with the repeated announcements by hawks in the US administration that the war in Iraq is merely the beginning of an imposition of America's brand of democracy on all Arab regimes, from Saudi Arabia to Egypt. The image of Iraqis, assisted by American soldiers, destroying the statue of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad's main square was particularly shocking to these NDP members. Many are now contemplating why the regime in Iraq collapsed so suddenly and why some Iraqis appear to be rejoicing at its demise. Some party members said the Iraqis' initial euphoria would be replaced by anger and hatred of the Americans if they do not promptly leave Iraq.
Others have suggested that the Iraqi celebrations are a direct result of years of living under a dictatorship. "I think the tragic demise of the regime in Iraq will result in a tremendous amount of pressure being placed on all Arab peoples and regimes. People will be keen to raise embarrassing questions about the democratic situation in their own countries, while the regimes will no longer be able to ignore the future consequences of these questions," one NDP member told the Weekly.
NDP MPs also believe that US threats regarding a new war against Syria would be a nightmare for the party. "Syria is an entirely different story. The Egyptian public was relatively tolerant of the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq because Saddam was a monstrous dictator. But in the case of Syria, the public outrage would be disastrous because the two peoples are very close. At one point, they were a single country," an NDP MP told the Weekly, referring to the Syrian-Egyptian union that lasted from 1958-1961.
Opposition MPs, meanwhile, view the dramatic collapse of the Iraqi regime as an earthquake unprecedented in scope and nature. Islamist MPs and activists said the lesson that Arab regimes must draw from the Iraqi regime's defeat is that they must urgently embark upon a massive campaign of genuine political reform.
Leftist and liberal MPs and activists agree that Egypt could bypass the political consequences of the war in Iraq by making great strides towards democratisation. "I think Egypt is in a better position than other Arab countries to [democratise]. We have an immense heritage of democratic values and a lively parliamentary life on which to rely in order to become a first- class democratic nation," Nasserist MP Hamdeen Sabahi told the Weekly. "Democracy requires basic conditions in order to prosper. These include separating the ruling party from the government or, rather, dissolving it, amending the 1971 Constitution, repealing emergency laws and military tribunals, and ensuring the integrity of elections," Sabahi said.
Hussein Abdel-Razeq, chairman of the leftist Tagammu Party's political secretariat, also argued that the best way to react to the shocking defeat of Iraq would be to make Egypt a truly democratic nation. Or, as Khaled Mohieddin, leader of the Tagammu, said during an opposition conference on Monday, "Egypt desperately needs genuine political reform before it is too late."
During an NDP meeting with Mubarak, El- Sherif said the Egyptian government is committed to democratic values and institutions. "We strongly believe in freedom of expression and active participation in political life. The responsibility of decision-making, however, rests with our leader, who swore to uphold the safety of a nation of 70 million people. President Mubarak will be remembered throughout history as a leader who was never fond of seeking personal glory and is committed to upholding Egypt's pride and interests," El-Sherif said.
It is not a secret, however, that some NDP leaders support the introduction of sweeping democratic reforms. One of the chief proponents of change is Mustafa El-Feki, chairman of parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee. El-Feki told the Qatari-based satellite television network Al-Jazeera that he was dismayed by the failure of Arab leaders during their recent summit in Sharm El-Sheikh to approve or even discuss democratic reform programmes. El-Feki chaired a 10 April meeting held by the NDP's Egypt and the World Committee, and attended by Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher and the chairman of the NDP's Policy Secretariat, Gamal Mubarak. El-Feki said the committee discussed the future of Egypt's relationship with the United States. "We emphasised that this relationship must be maintained as a strategic alliance," he said. At the same time, El-Feki said that an action plan was drawn up, focussing on what might happen in the Middle East in the aftermath of the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq.
The NDP's Policy Secretariat, which did not to meet during the war in Iraq, is scheduled to reconvene today to discuss newly adopted political reform initiatives such as scrapping 1980's Law 105 on state security courts, abolishing the penal code's hard labour penalty, and setting up a National Council for Human Rights. These so- called reforms are expected to cause controversy when they come up for debate in parliament. Opposition commentators said the initiatives have fallen short of what had been hoped for, and are clearly aimed at impressing the United States, particularly after US President George W Bush declared his administration's intention to encourage democratic reform in the Middle East.
C a p t i o n : Mubarak discussing the repercussions of war in Iraq with NDP leaders
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : 17 - 23 April 2003 (Issue No. 634)
Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2003/634/eg2.htm