Obasanjo's clean sweep
Nigerian opposition parties cry foul after their rout in presidential elections, writes Gamal Nkrumah
Unquestionably Africa's most important presidential poll, Nigeria's landmark elections which took place last Saturday, 19 April, will have ramifications far beyond the borders of the sprawling West African country -- a federation of 36 states. The oil-rich country with an estimated 130 million people is by far Africa's most populous nation. Nigeria is, however, plagued by complex socio-economic problems and a crippling foreign debt, all of which fuel ethnic and religious strife. Divided into an overwhelmingly Muslim north and a largely Christian and animist south, Nigeria still suffers from the lingering legacy of the bitter civil war which nearly ripped the country apart between 1967-70.
Tough as it is, the Nigerian presidency is the most powerful position in all of Africa south of the Sahara Desert and north of the Limpopo River. Nigeria might well be the economic powerhouse of west and central Africa, but its economy is bedeviled by corruption and red tape. Radical economic and political changes are, however, afoot -- at any rate that is what presidential candidates have promised. But beyond the electioneering bravado and razzmatazz, Nigerians are deeply worried about the economy of their potentially wealthy nation.
Presidential aspirant Gani Fawehinmi lamented in a clear indictment of Obasanjo's record, "Obasanjo promised to fight corruption and uplift the lives of Nigerians. What have we seen instead? Mass unemployment, deteriorating standards of living, corruption in high places. Hospitals are left without essential drugs. [The] education [system] is in shambles and university lecturers are in and out of the classrooms because of strikes to protest inadequacies in the educational system. If [Obasanjo] is allowed to continue this way and comes back a second time, that will be the end of democracy."
Saddled with a huge foreign debt of $30 billion, the Nigerian economy is heavily dependent on oil exports, which account for 95 per cent of the country's foreign exchange earnings. Economic matters dominated the debates in the run-up to the presidential poll.
No less than 30 presidential candidates competed in the election. The names bandied about, including the very first woman presidential hopeful, were many and varied. The retired generals running as presidential candidates are at once emblems of new and old power in Nigeria. The preponderance of these former military officials in the election, the incumbent president himself notwithstanding, reflected the enormous powers wielded by the military over the Nigerian political establishment. Nigerian politics is effectively still dominated by soldiers who have taken off their uniforms and have slipped into more popularly accepted civilian attire.
At first it was thought that there would be a two-general election. Later on, it transpired that only one general had the upper hand -- the incumbent Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo.
The poll is Nigeria's first civilian-run presidential election in four decades. Nigeria's 70 million voters, it appears, by and large placed their trust in Obasanjo and threw in their lot with his ruling party. His popularity was not restricted to his home region in southwestern Nigeria. A Christian and former military ruler who is Yoruba, Nigeria's second largest ethnic group, Obasanjo spearheaded a campaign to stamp out corruption and embark on political reform leading to greater democracy and transparency in governance. Nigeria enjoys a vibrant free press and there has been marked improvement in human rights since the days of military rule, but economic and social problems threaten to derail the democratic process. Obasanjo's election in 1999 ended 15 years of military rule in Nigeria. However, he maintains close contact with other influential retired generals and the military, which in part explains his phenomenal success at the polls. Still, Obasanjo has heeded the shrill call of the majority of Nigerians to expunge any negative legacy of his military predecessors.
The losers are crying foul. They are especially galled because they claim that Obasanjo could not have won 90 per cent of the vote in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta region, where anti-government sentiment is strong. There are widespread reports of vote-rigging and suspicions about the fact that in areas where the vast majority of the population is illiterate not a single spoilt paper was reported.
Retired Major General Muhammadu Buhari came in a poor second. Buhari's All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP), the chief opposition group, bitterly complained about fudged tallies, ballot box theft and other electoral irregularities. The electoral process appeared to be especially flawed in certain contentious regions, including the oil-producing River State.
Another presidential hopeful was former secessionist leader Chief Odumegwu Ojukwu. But like Buhari, who promised to make it the "mother of all presidential races", he did not do well outside of the narrow confines of his home region.
Nigerian opposition leaders stopped short of rejecting outright the election results. While Western observers appeared to be highly critical, African observers stressed the relatively peaceful nature of the polling process. The United States-based National Democratic Institute reported "vandalised, stolen and stuffed ballot boxes" in many states. The US-based International Republican Institute and the European Union were also concerned about irregularities.
Obasanjo's handsome showing not only aroused the envy of his rivals but prompted charges of fraud and voter manipulation. "A travesty of democracy", Buhari indignantly said of the elections. But officials of Obasanjo's ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) hotly denied ballot fraud.
With his commanding lead, Obasanjo is set to guide Nigeria into a more prosperous and hopefully more peaceful age.
However, Obasanjo has incurred the wrath of some bigwigs, particularly those whose finances are currently under investigation. Saturday's presidential election was preceded by parliamentary polls where the ruling PDP scored well, but again the opposition complained of foul play.
In a desperate attempt to win more votes, Buhari tried to drum up support for his party in the mainly Muslim north. Buhari's strategy seems to have paid off and his party made significant gains in the northern half of the country. However, Obasanjo, still scored between 15-20 per cent of the vote in the 12 northern Nigerian states that have instituted Islamic Shari'a. Obasanjo obviously made the most out of the inherent advantages of incumbency.
Buhari, a former military ruler like Obasanjo, is a Muslim northerner. His detractors say that the best he can now do is voluntarily take himself out of the political game and let his rival, Obasanjo, enjoy being in the spotlight.
Another retired general who ran for the Nigerian presidency was Ike Omar Nwanchukwu, presidential candidate for the National Democratic Party (NDP). Nwanchukwu was born and bred in the mainly Muslim northern part of the country but is of mixed north-south parentage: his mother hailed from the royal household of Katsina and his father was an Igbo southerner. But the mixed heritage of the NDP candidate apparently won him fewer votes than he had hoped for.
The overriding concern of most Nigerians is the economy. Pockets of prosperity remain tiny oases in wide deserts of lack, dereliction and neglect. The agricultural sector, particularly subsistence agriculture, has been wrecked, and Nigeria has become increasingly dependent on food imports and staples such as rice, maize and wheat. The Nigerian economy contracted by 0.9 per cent in 2002, but on the positive side the non-oil sectors collectively grew by an impressive 5.3 per cent.
Nigeria exports $20 billion worth of oil a year, but the vast majority of Nigerians live in abject poverty. Economic liberalisation and the privatisation of the economy have taken a terrible toll, with unemployment standing at a staggering 40 per cent.
Nigeria produces two million barrels of oil a day and production is forecast to double in less than a couple of years. But in spite of its enormous oil wealth, the standard of living has plummeted over the past three decades. Nigerians are poorer today than they were upon independence from Britain in 1960.
Nigeria has had serious problems with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international financial institutions. Nigeria withdrew from an IMF monitoring programme in March 2002 after the IMF urged the Nigerian government to curb spending. Nigeria's budget deficit crept up to nearly five per cent of the country's GDP. The IMF and Western creditors have voiced concern over Nigeria's build-up of arrears to bilateral official creditors, its procrastination in debt payment and its huge fiscal deficit. Economic issues are expected to top Obasanjo's agenda. His successful second term bid was ultimately predetermined by the retired generals' blind faith in him and his ability to pull the country through the difficult days leading to more promising economic times ahead.
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : 24 - 30 April 2003 (Issue No. 635)
Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2003/635/in4.htm