Voting and more voting
Most Colombians will not be thrilled by the upshots of a referendum for reform, Hisham El-Naggar writes from Buenos Aires
Colombians have been voting for two straight days. The first was devoted to President Alvaro Uribe's referendum. The second was a standard local election day. The people's choice, however, is never a simple matter in a country where violence is a political expedient, not an aberrance.
The referendum asked 15 questions primarily related to administrative reforms and economic policy. The main thrust of the government's proposals is the elimination of a number of official posts, the freezing of civil service salaries, a reduction in the number of congressional seats and the withdrawal of "civil rights" -- primarily, the right to vote and run for elections -- from officials accused of corruption.
Uribe's detractors have complained that the referendum is confusing, cumbersome and largely intended as political propaganda. Interestingly, the debate is mostly about form rather than content; critics are not particularly opposed to the proposed moves, but they consider a referendum unnecessary. Debate may end up being futile: as Al- Ahram Weekly went to press it was uncertain whether enough voters had even participated in the referendum to lend it constitutional validity.
For the referendum to be binding, a quarter of registered voters have to cast their ballots. That proportion may not seem substantial, but the guerrilla movements that allow the government no quarter have gone out of their way to scare voters -- as well as candidates -- away from this week's local elections. Sometimes threats by these groups turn to outright violence, making election season particularly unhealthy for Colombians. Such skullduggery is sure to have impacted turnout to the Uribe referendum.
One could also note that 25 per cent of the electorate hardly constitutes an impressive segment of the population. If nearly three-quarters of the population fails to vote and the referendum passes, its presentation by Uribe as a plebiscite on his own performance is thus unlikely to be a convincing indication of national approval.
Why then Uribe's insistence on the referendum? To begin with, some of the measures -- especially the reduction in the number of members of Congress from 268 to 218 -- constituted part of Uribe's campaign platform. Indeed, he was initially in favour of a more drastic cut, to 150 seats. Given general dissatisfaction with politicians, the proposed measure's popularity seemed to be based on the logic that if elected officials fail their constituencies, then the fewer of them in office the better. Pushed to the limit, this logic implies that the best government is one without elected representatives at all, only a benevolent president who can channel the will of his people into political action. This oversimplification comes perilously close to an extreme, and, of course, unconstitutional, form of "personalism", where all hopes and power are embodied in a single figurehead. Uribe has backed away from such aspirations.
Uribe is, to be sure, a popular president. Polls -- conducted in the areas where it is safe to do so -- show strong support for him as a person. While the result of his escalation of the war against the guerrillas -- and also against their paramilitary enemies, who have become a law unto themselves -- is uncertain, his determination to restore order struck a chord in a population fed up with the collapse of central authority and the dominance of warlords who terrorise villagers and city-dwellers alike.
Support for the budget-cutting measures Uribe proposed is, however, rather less certain. Budget issues are not usually submitted to a referendum, unless the government is eager to avoid assuming any political cost for a measure which will, as in this case, be resisted by its targets of reform, civil servants. People may believe that the public sector is inefficient and perhaps in some cases corrupt, but spending less on it will not, on its own, take away its Kafkaesque veneer or effect transparency. Spending cuts are expected to swell the ranks of the unemployed. In return, the private sector is expected to become more dynamic overnight and offer employment to the jobless hordes -- but tell that to the Argentines.
One doubts that Colombians are losing sleep over the results of the referendum. If enough did vote in support of the measures, Uribe's already stout base of support will be confirmed. If not, the perception will be that the people doubt his ability to steer the country through its current volatility. In either case, the referendum will not be remembered as his most brilliant of ideas.
C a p t i o n :
Alvaro Uribe
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : 30 October - 5 November 2003 (Issue No. 662)
Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2003/662/in5.htm