Rebuffed, for now
Despite its decision not to send troops to Iraq, the Turkish authorities reiterated that this is not the end of the issue. Gareth Jenkins reports from Ankara
Continuing opposition from the Iraq Interim Governing Council (IGC) last week forced Turkey into a humiliating withdrawal of its offer to send troops to support the US-led occupation forces. But Ankara remains adamant that it will not stand idly by if developments within the country are not to its liking.
The collapse of plans to send 10,000 troops highlighted once again not only Turkey's failure to understand how it is perceived by its neighbours, but also Washington's alarming refusal to understand, much less take into account, the realities of the region before making decisions.
The US initiated discussions with Ankara over possible military support in Iraq during the summer. On 7 October the Turkish parliament officially authorised the government to send Turkish troops to support the US-led occupation. Although initial Turkish plans foresaw the deployment of a division, approximately 10,000 men, Turkish military sources confirmed that up to twice that number could eventually be sent to Iraq. But, despite Washington's repeated claims that a primary motive in its campaign to oust Saddam Hussein was to bring democracy to Iraq, it apparently did not think it necessary to consult the IGC on the matter.
Although the US successfully managed to prevent the IGC from issuing an official declaration opposing the Turkish deployment, it was unable to prevent individual members of the IGC from expressing their dismay.
Opposition to the Turkish deployment is partly grounded in history. The Turkish republic's predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, ruled Iraq for 400 years. In Turkey this is remembered as a period of peace and harmony, in Iraq as one of often brutal repression. Many Iraqis suspect, not without justification, that elements in Turkey harbour neo-imperialistic ambitions towards Iraq. They don't so much suspect a land grab or the establishment of direct rule from Ankara, but rather the creation of a de facto protectorate in the north of the country, which would give Turkey both access to northern Iraq's oil reserves and enable it to suppress any Iraqi Kurdish moves towards autonomy or independence. Turkey fears the latter would reignite secessionist ambitions amongst its own still restive Kurdish minority.
Despite behind-the-scenes pressure, Washington was unable to persuade the IGC to stop voicing its opposition to the Turkish deployment. Last Thursday, in a tacit admission of defeat, the US announced plans to put an additional 43,000 National Guard and Reserve support troops on standby, ready for deployment to Iraq to fill the positions originally earmarked for the Turkish contingent. Humiliated by the vocal opposition of the IGC, and privately furious that Washington had not secured Iraqi backing before Turkey publicly pledged to send troops, Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul telephoned US Secretary of State Colin Powell to announce that Turkey was indefinitely suspending its offer.
Last Friday, Gul tried to put a brave face on the setback.
"We said from the beginning that we were not too eager anyway," he said. "We had said that we would send [troops] if our contribution would be of use. We saw that this is not the situation. That's why we took this decision."
US State Department spokesperson Richard Boucher said that the decision had been taken as a response to "Iraqi sensitivities", although he claimed that the Turkish deployment had been suspended rather than cancelled.
"Circumstances may permit [it] at some point," he said. "But for the moment, it appears it's not going forward."
In the short-term, the decision to withdraw the troop offer will probably boost the Turkish government's domestic standing. The US-led war to oust Saddam Hussein was deeply unpopular inside Turkey. Most Turks believed that Washington was motivated by the desire to control Iraq's oil reserves rather than prevent Saddam's acquisition of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) or introduce democracy. Events since the end of fighting, particularly the failure to find any evidence of WMDs, have merely confirmed these suspicions. There was widespread opposition to sending Turkish soldiers, most of whom are conscripts, to support the US-led occupation of Iraq, particularly as the mounting violence made it clear that the Turkish troops would inevitably suffer casualties.
But the debacle has been an international humiliation. In September, after returning from a trip to Iraq, Gul proudly reassured the Turkish people.
"The Iraqis want our troops to come," he said. "They are just not saying so publicly."
This has now been shown to be manifestly untrue. Perhaps more serious than a blow to Turkish pride, the collapse of the plans to send troops to Iraq has left Ankara's Iraq policy in tatters. Privately, Turkish officials candidly admitted that the real reason they wanted to send troops to Iraq was to be able to exert influence, prevent the creation of a Kurdish state, secure contracts for Turkish companies and be well-positioned to crush the last remnants of Turkish Kurdish secessionists, who are currently holed up in the mountains along the Turkish-Iraqi border. This will now be all the more difficult.
On Sunday, in his first ever full-length interview with a Turkish newspaper, Turkish Chief of Staff General Hilmi Ozkok warned that Ankara might have to examine other means of ensuring that developments in Iraq did not harm Turkey's national interests.
"Since we are not there, we do not have a say in what happens," he told the daily Radikal. "We are making preparations. We are arranging the activities of our forces in a way that will meet various needs. If Iraq gets split up, especially if a new formation takes shape in northern Iraq, that will greatly affect us .... [The Iraqi Kurds] have themselves said that in the end the goal is to establish an independent Kurdish state in the region ... Such a development would drag in Iran and Syria along with Turkey and no one knows where this would end."
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : 13 - 19 November 2003 (Issue No. 664)
Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2003/664/re6.htm