Iraq, but not as we know it
There is no doubt that at the time of launching its war against Iraq the US administration had no idea of how to manage the country after deposing the ruling regime. In the six months since George W Bush announced the end of military operations, the US has abandoned several plans, while always upholding the basic non-negotiable goal of maintaining a US military presence around oil reserves in the Gulf.
A few days ago, the US Governor in Iraq Paul Bremer returned from Washington to announce a new strategic plan aimed at handing over power to Iraqis before holding general elections -- a polar reversal from the previous strategy which intended to first hold general elections and pass a new constitution before handing over power to a sovereign government. In reality, however, the new US strategy aims only to decrease the loss of life among American soldiers and their allies.
It is based on forming an interim government by July 2004, charged with facilitating matters and taking responsibility for executive and security matters -- hence easing the burden on US forces. The Interim Governing Council (IGC) and local bodies would then choose representatives for the national legislative assembly charged with the task of forming an interim government. This is to be preceded by the passing of a "basic law" next February which would outline the format of choosing the people's representatives, and the number of seats for each district. The national assembly would draft a temporary constitution outlining a new federal configuration, including the representation of sects, when forming the government. Matters would continue in this fashion until a permanent constitution is drafted and put to the vote in a later referendum.
These overlapping stages face many difficulties and much opposition. Although the IGC has approved them, the leader of the majority of the Shi'ite sect in Iraq, Imam Ayatollah Al-Sistani, is now calling for the election, rather than appointment, of the members of the national assembly assigned to draft the temporary constitution and choose the interim government. President Bush said he would take this into consideration, which would result in uncalculated ramifications when a Shi'ite majority wins at the polls.
In light of these unsettling fluctuations a new idea is gingerly surfacing. It is a proposal presented by Lesley Glebb, the honourary president of the Council on Foreign Relations, for nothing less than a full partition of Iraq. The proposal, published in detail in The New York Times, is a slash and burn philosophy of how to get Bush out of Iraq: the division of the country three ways, with Kurds in the north, Shi'ites in the south, and Sunnis in the centre. In this manner, it would seem, the US would be able to withdraw its troops from the Sunni triangle where violent resistance is concentrated. Happily, this region is devoid of oil wells. Meanwhile, this would bridle and weaken Sunni resistance and contain its evil to a small area. It also opens up the possibility for a UN role, and the transfer of authority to the Sunni minority. As for the Kurds, they already have extensive self- governing authority. If a religious state is created in the Shi'ite region -- which is likely -- it is nonetheless unlikely that it will cede to be controlled by Iran. The $18.5 billion in US funds allotted by Congress can be channelled where it matters: to southern oilfields.
Although the Bush administration has repeatedly voiced its opposition to the division of Iraq, there are many signs indicating that plans of dismantling Iraq have been considered. That high level policy-oriented research centres are promoting these ideas with the support of hawks in the Pentagon can only suggest that they are being kept on backburner until a suitable time arises when they can be implemented.
But if Bush and his cronies believe that this option would be less costly, either in funds or American lives, they are hostage to an unfortunate but grand illusion.
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : 4 - 10 December 2003 (Issue No. 667)
Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2003/667/op4.htm