The contenders?
Are there any serious presidential candidates besides the incumbent? Shaden Shehab engages in a 'what if' exercise
Now that President Hosni Mubarak has made his big, and unexpected, announcement about a multi-candidate presidential election, the question of who might actually be a legitimate candidate must surely be asked. "That's a good but difficult question," most of the public figures interviewed by Al-Ahram Weekly said, after a stunned chuckle. Many wanted to know what others had said before providing their own choices. Other said their "position" prevented them from answering.
Nearly everyone the Weekly spoke to agreed that out of more than 70 million Egyptians, there are certainly "hundreds of people who are eligible to become president". The problem was that, "due to the last half century's stagnant political climate, we don't know who most of them are," as one of the respondents put it.
Some names consistently cropped up. Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa was one. Prominent historian and judge Tarek El- Bishri, and National Democratic Party Policies Committee Chairman Gamal Mubarak were two others. At the same time, quite a few people called President Hosni Mubarak "the only appropriate leader for the coming period".
The reasons for that varied. American Chamber of Commerce President Taher Helmy said, "in the absence of a clear leader who has a specific programme, beliefs, ideas, and experience who is able to express himself to the public transparently, the only possible candidate is President Mubarak."
According to prominent poet and writer Abdel-Moeti Hegazi, "nobody else is ready, and there is not enough time for others to introduce themselves to the public. The decision to amend Article 76 of the Constitution will not be applied in the real sense before the next presidential elections," Hegazi said, because "being president is one thing, and being a star in a certain field is something else; being a star doesn't necessarily mean that person can handle the responsibility of being a president in such a short amount of time."
Al-Musawwar magazine Chief Editor Makram Mohamed Ahmed agreed that, "there are many people who might become leaders, but not in the coming period. This historic decision has opened the door for people and parties to prepare themselves, and groom certain individuals for that kind of responsibility," but for later elections, not the ones coming up this year. Nonetheless, Ahmed said, "political parties and individuals should take part in the coming presidential elections to plant and deepen democratic commitment, and bestow President Mubarak's decision with relevance. They will gain experience, and the masses will too."
George Ishaq, the rapporteur of the Popular Movement for Change (the group also known as Kifaya, or Enough), called this a "nonsensical and defeatist attitude". The movement, he said, would be nominating "several" names for the presidency next week. "It is no secret," he said, "that Tarek El-Bishri was unanimously agreed on by the movement".
El-Bishri is a "respectable figure in the eyes of all political forces, from left to right, Muslim and Christian. He understands the importance of freedoms, and how democracy should be implemented in the real sense," said journalist Alaa El-Attar. "That's the kind of person we need in the next period -- a president who will represent all Egyptians."
Mohamed El-Sayed Said, the deputy director of Al-Ahram's Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, said Ain Shams University law professor Hossam Eissa was an ideal candidate. Although relatively unknown amongst the general public, Eissa is respected in political circles, Said said. "Ideally, the next president should be sagacious, very well acquainted with Egyptian politics, have the courage to take bold decisions, and centrist in a manner that allows him to grasp and absorb different ideologies and trends, and have integrity."
Clearly, popular singer Shaaban Abdel- Rehim is not the only Egyptian who loves Amr Moussa, as he made clear in his chart-topping rap "I Hate Israel". Lawyer Abdel-Raouf Ahmed said, "Amr Moussa has it all -- integrity, experience and popularity."
A university professor who preferred to remain anonymous said, "the only reason Moussa was dismissed from his post as foreign minister was because of his popularity with the masses, which he has not lost."
Hafez Abu Seada of the Egyptian Organisation for Human Rights said all political forces should field candidates, regardless of whether or not they have a chance of actually winning. "They have to show the public that they exist," he said. Abu Seada mentioned Bar Association Chairman Sameh Ashour as representing the Nassserists, Wafd Deputy Chairman Mahmoud Abaza, Tagammu Chairman Rifaat El-Said, parliamentary Education Committee Chairman Hossam Badrawi from the NDP, and Gamal Mubarak.
"This is a charade," said actress and activist Mohsena Tawfiq. "They won't allow anybody who stands a chance to be nominated. We all know why this amendment was introduced -- to allow Gamal Mubarak to nominate himself, and say that this is not hereditary succession, but the will of the masses. I am not optimistic at all."
Makram Mohamed Ahmed, on the other hand, argued that it was "unfair to connect such a historic decision with that kind of accusation. It is also unfair to deny Gamal Mubarak the right to be nominated, while allowing millions of others to do so."
Taher Helmy went even further, saying that in the "unlikely event that President Mubarak decides not to run for another term, the only other choice is Gamal Mubarak, [who] worked very hard to restructure the NDP, and introduce new ideas with courage."
The general public seemed equally unable to come up with a wide variety of names. "Anybody who is not from the military, or from the older generations, is welcome. The only problem with Gamal Mubarak is that he is the president's son, and it would look like we don't mind hereditary succession," said housewife Buthayna Darwish. "In all honesty, however, he is a man with good liberal ideas, who picked up political experience by being the president's son, and the most important figure in the NDP."
"The name is not important," said minibus driver Othman Ayoub. "What matters most is that we elect someone who allows us to live decently, with our basic rights fulfilled, and our safety guaranteed."
Profiles:
Tarek El-Beshri
Although Tarek El-Bishri, 72, keeps a low profile, he is a highly respected figure in political circles. Labelled a moderate Islamist, El-Bishri has been praised by people from a spectrum of political affiliations. A former State Council deputy chief justice, El-Bishri has played a major role in the development of a contextual approach to the interpretation of Islamic law.
He is also an eminent historian, and the author of numerous works on Egyptian political history and political Islam. Over the years his writings on history have moved from a Marxist/nationalist perspective to a more Islamic interpretational approach.
El-Bishri graduated from Cairo University's Faculty of Law in 1953. He studied under both civilian lawyers and Azharite sheikhs, and was soon after appointed to the State Council's agricultural department, which was affiliated to the revolution's agrarian reform programme. Prior to his retirement in 1998, El- Bishri was also chairman of the State Council's general assembly for legal opinion and fatwas.
Last year, El-Bishri wrote an article in the Nasserist Party mouthpiece Al-Arabi arguing that civil disobedience could be a successful way of pressuring the government into adopting real political reform.
Amr Moussa
Time magazine has described Amr Moussa, 69, as "perhaps the most adored public servant in the Arab world". Indeed, during his 10 years as Egypt's foreign minister, Moussa was admired and respected by Egyptians from across the political and social spectrum, because of his clear and bold stances on issues of major concern to the Arab world. In this light, he was well known for his sharp criticism of the US and Israel.
A graduate of Cairo University's Faculty of Law, Moussa joined the Foreign Ministry in 1958 -- the beginning of a remarkably distinguished diplomatic career. In 1982, he became Egypt's ambassador to India; in 1990, its permanent delegate to the UN; in 1991 he became the country's top diplomat.
In May 2001, Moussa was unanimously elected by all the Arab states as the Arab League's secretary- general. In that role, he has been constantly challenged as he attempts to bring the League's members together into a "united Arab voice" on issues that concern the Arab world.
Gamal Mubarak
Being the president's son may have done more harm than good for Gamal Mubarak, since the notion of his becoming president is linked to the much- maligned concept of hereditary succession. At 42, Mubarak heads the National Democratic Party's influential Policies Committee, which is credited with restructuring and reinvigorating the party, as well as refining its political vision -- a process that has often caused tension with the NDP's old guard. Mubarak first joined the party in the wake of its poor performance in the 2000 parliamentary elections.
After graduating from the American University in Cairo, Mubarak worked for the Bank of America's London office for six and a half years, specialising in investment financing, before setting up his own Medinvest Associates Ltd, which manages a private equity fund, and does corporate finance consultancy.
Back in Egypt, Mubarak became a very familiar face among Egypt's business elite; as his public roles increased, he also became more familiar to the public at large. In addition to his major role at the NDP, he is also the chairman of the Future Generation Foundation (FGF), a human resources NGO, and the spokesman for a major US-Egyptian business advisory body.
The young Mubarak is widely perceived as a reformist, who has opened up the NDP leadership to a new, younger and more liberal brand of political figures.
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2005/732/eg4.htm