Election fever
November's parliamentary elections will throw up some hard fought battles, reports Gamal Essam El-Din
A record number of candidates have applied to stand in November's parliamentary elections. By the end of Tuesday the number of applicants had risen to more than 4,600 though, as Al-Ahram Weekly went to press, sources within the Interior Ministry said they expected the total to exceed 5,000. This compares with 4,250 candidates in 2000 and 4,040 in 1995.
The number of candidates that actually stand, however, is expected to be far less. Some will reconsider and drop out of the race while others will be rejected by the special security committees that begin vetting nominees from today. The final list will be announced on 26 October after which campaigning will officially begin.
Some 3000 applicants plan to stand as independents, compared to 3,200 in both 2000 and 1995 and 1,800 in 1990. At least 70 per cent of these so-called independents are actually members of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) who decided to run independently after the party refused to nominate them officially.
According to leading Al-Ahram columnist Salama Ahmed Salama they are "independent only in name".
"The growth in the number of independents," said Salama, "is largely a result of the individual candidacy system which leaves candidates dependent on their own money or familial and tribal affiliations for success."
The voters, he argues, are well aware that the majority of independents belong to the NDP. He believes "this undemocratic NDP tactic explains why the turnout in elections has dropped to such dismal levels".
As expected the NDP is fielding the greatest number of candidates, contesting all 444 parliamentary seats. At least 50 of those standing are businessmen, while only six are women. The NDP is fielding a single Copt.
Between 150 and 170 independent candidates are members of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood compared to 90 in 2000. Diaa Rashwan, an analyst with Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, puts the rise in Brotherhood candidates down to two factors: their success in 2000 in winning 17 seats and forming the largest opposition bloc and their belief that the current political ferment will play out in their favour. Mohamed Habib, deputy chairman of the Brotherhood's supreme guide, thinks the group could win up to 80 seats.
Though nominally a member of the National Front for Change (NFC) the Brotherhood is acting independently of the umbrella grouping in fielding candidates.
Opposition parties are expected to be represented by almost 900 candidates compared to 870 in 2000.
The NFC, a coalition of 10 political forces, announced on Saturday it will be fielding 222 candidates in 179 constituencies. The number rose on Tuesday to 255 after the NFC approved an additional 33 candidates. Noaman Gomaa, NFC spokesman and chairman of Al-Wafd, said the NFC had charged Kifaya spokesman George Ishak with contacting foreign organisations, including the UN, in an attempt to ensure the parliamentary elections are internationally monitored. Gomaa also revealed that a special fund will be set up to help finance NFC candidates.
The NFC's initial list includes 153 Wafdists, 59 Tagammuists, 22 Nasserists, nine members of Nasserist Al-Karama (dignity) movement, 16 members of the Islamist Labour Party and six members of both the National Union and the Popular Campaign for Change.
Al-Ghad Party, led by Ayman Nour, will contest 90 per cent of districts, fielding 250 candidates. Al-Ghad, says Nour, will be the NDP's strongest challenger. The party has already attracted a number of NDP members whose candidacy applications were rejected by the party including Medhat Abdel-Hadi, a veteran NDP MP who was rejected in 2000 in favour of Finance Minister Youssef Boutros Ghali. Abdel-Hadi will be Al-Ghad's candidate against Ghali in Cairo's northern district of Shubra.
Fierce battles between NDP and NFC candidates are expected in several constituencies that will go to the polls in the first round of the three-phased ballot scheduled between 9 and 15 November. Among the most closely watched contests will be that between Kamal El-Shazli, minister of state for the People's Assembly affairs and a prominent member of the NDP's old guard, and Wafdist multi- millionaire Mohamed Kamel in Al-Menoufiya Governorate's district of Al-Bagour.
El-Shazli, who is more accustomed to standing uncontested, faces an uphill battle. Sensing El-Shazli's star within the NDP is falling seven candidates in addition to Kamel plan to stand against him.
The fiercest battles are anticipated in constituencies in which wealthy businessmen are standing. On top of these is Cairo's downtown district of Qasr Al-Nil where Hossam Badrawi, NDP business tycoon and a close associate of Gamal Mubarak, faces NDP- independent Hisham Mostafa Khalil and Al-Tagammu candidate Fathiya El-Assal. Khalil, who funded a large part of President Hosni Mubarak's presidential campaign in Cairo, decided to run as an independent after he was dropped from the NDP's official list.
In the southern Cairo district of El-Maadi NDP business tycoon Mohamed Morshidi will be facing another NDP- independent, Akmal Qortam, chairman of an oil exploration company, and the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Mansour.
A similar scenario will be repeated in the northern Cairo district of Nasr City where NDP multi-millionaire Mostafa El-Sallab faces the construction magnate and former NDP MP Fawzi El-Sayed and the Brotherhood's only woman candidate, Makarem El-Deiry.
Deputy speaker and veteran NDP MP Amal Othman is also expected to face a tough challenge from Brotherhood candidate Hazem Abu Ismail. In previous elections Othman stood against the Brotherhood's former Supreme Guide Mamoun El-Hodeibi.
Overall the number of women candidates is up on 2000, and could reach 150 compared with 120 in the last elections. Interestingly, it is in the governorate of Sohag that the greatest number of women are standing though perhaps the most prominent among them -- Mona Makram Ebeid, former MP and professor of political science at the American University in Cairo -- is running in the Northern Cairo district of Shubra.
The number of journalists -- from opposition, national and independent press organisations -- standing as candidates has also increased, up from five in 2000 to 35 this time round. Among the most prominent is Mustafa Bakri, editor of the independent weekly Al-Osbou', who is running in the Southern Cairo district of Al-Tibeen.
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2005/765/fr2.htm