Dangerous liaisons
The release of the Mehlis report lands Syria in the hot seat again, reports Serene Assir
UN Security Council members discussed yesterday a US-French draft resolution threatening economic sanctions against Syria, and opening the door for harsher measures if it does not fully cooperate in the investigations into the assassination of Lebanese former Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri. The draft resolution demands that the Syrian regime surrender Asef Shawkat (the president's brother-in- law and head of military intelligence), Bahjat Sulayman (intelligence chief) and Lebanese Jamil Al-Sayyed (former security chief in Lebanon) for their alleged involvement in the assasination. For now, Russian diplomatic sources say Moscow will veto any resolution to impose sanctions.
On Tuesday Detlev Mehlis, head of the United Nations International Investigation Committee presented his initial findings on the murder of Hariri to the Security Council. In Lebanon, where the political scene has long been shaped by different conjectures over who was behind Hariri's 14 February assassination, spontaneous demonstrations broke out in Martyrs' Square in downtown Beirut as soon as the Mehlis report was released, with many in the crowd expressing thanks to the prosecutor for his work. For thousands of Lebanese political progress in their country remains contingent on uncovering the truth.
"This is only the beginning, but of course it is understandable that people should be happy that we are coming closer to finding out the truth," Nader Naqib, president of the pro-Hariri Future Youth Movement, told Al-Ahram Weekly.
Many Lebanese, though, urge caution over the report, arguing that public opinion must not turn too hastily against Syria. The Mehlis report, they point out, is only the first step in a long process.
"It was perhaps inevitable that what should constitute a purely objective investigation into a major crime has been highly politicised," commented one Lebanese diplomat on condition of anonymity. "We should neither thank nor blame Mehlis for his findings -- he has no agenda. He is simply doing his work as a criminal investigator."
Those calling for calm have extended their appeals beyond Lebanon's borders. "Before any steps are taken on any level a close reading of the report is required," said Samir Mansour, associate editor of the traditionally anti-Syrian Lebanese daily An- Nahar. "The questions that have arisen are highly emotive, yet they must be resolved in an unemotional way. Although the report points to alleged suspects -- including Lebanese Internal Security Forces officials who removed crucial evidence from the crime scene immediately after the blast -- we still know nothing about who issued orders for them to do so, or how much the various suspects knew of the actual consequences of their actions."
Adding to the confusion is the fact that two versions of the Mehlis report are currently in circulation. One, leaked to the press on the eve of the official release, which incriminates senior members of the Syrian regime -- including relatives of President Bashar Al-Assad -- and contains alleged evidence of direct threats by Assad to Hariri.
The second -- intended for distribution according to the Mehlis team -- is less explicit in its implication of Syrian and Lebanese security service involvement.
According to Mansour there is also a third, confidential version of the report that is in the hands of the Lebanese authorities.
While the report details possible scenarios it does not provide clear conclusions on how exactly the crime was committed or who masterminded the plot. It simply plays out the various options and recommends leads that Lebanese investigators and the judiciary should follow.
The international investigation was never mandated to make clear cut accusations. As Mehlis clearly states at the final paragraph of the 54 page-long report -- a summary of over 16,000 pages of documents the team collected during the course of its work -- only further investigations and a fair trial can prove the guilt or innocence of any given party.
Lebanese authorities have already begun to act on information contained in the report, arresting four people last week, among them Al-Ahbash member Mahmoud Abdul-Aal, who was implicated with making a phone call to one of Lahoud's presidential phone lines minutes before the fatal bombing.
Though the text of the report repeatedly states that its findings are provisional, it contains a number of ticking bombs each of which could blow Lebanon's political scene wide open.
Since the release of the report calls for the president's resignation have intensified. According to Mansour "Elias Atallah, Boutrous Harb and Rene Muawwad MPs have all begun to make moves to replace him."
"Of course the report is politically charged," says Naqib. "It is precisely for this reason that we are calling for a trial of the suspects abroad."
"There are two ways such a trial can be secured," says Walid Jumblatt, who has been at the forefront of the campaign to reformulate Lebanese-Syrian relations and oust Lahoud. "Either Lebanon presents a direct request to an international tribunal or the Security Council itself makes the suggestion. Either way, I believe that we are slowly and surely moving towards an international trial," he told the Weekly.
Many international lawyers, however, including Karen Parker who is currently focussing her efforts on Iraq, believe neither option is feasible given the circumstantial nature of much of the evidence collected by Mehlis, and the level of politicisation of so many of his witnesses.
But for now at least, the most immediate threat facing Damascus is not an international trial, but the possibility of Security Council-imposed sanctions. US President George W Bush told the pan-Arab Al-Arabiya TV channel that force would be used against Syria only as "the last -- the very last -- option".
Over the week, thousands of Syrians demonstrated in Damascus and Aleppo, pledging loyalty to Assad's regime and denouncing the report's findings as politically motivated. Nor are the Lebanese sanguine about the possibility of sanctions.
"Above all we don't want the Syrian people to pay," says Naqib. "They are innocent. We believe it is those who were directly involved in the crime who should be held accountable." His words belie a suspicion growing in Lebanon that having passed the issue up to the Security Council, the matter is now out of Lebanese hands -- Syria is the target and Hariri is but a pretext.
C a p t i o n :
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2005/766/fr1.htm