2006: The great unknown
Will there be a civil war in Iraq? A coup d'état in Syria? More pressure for reform in Egypt? Al-Ahram Weekly asked a group of analysts for their predictions
The answers only inspire even more questions: that was one of the conclusions reached by a round-table held by Al-Ahram Weekly on the last day of a turbulent year. We brought together an esteemed group of policy-makers, strategists and analysts for an intense brainstorming session about local, regional and international prospects for 2006. The questions we asked included: What are the most pressing issues in Egypt, the region and the world? Will the dramatic developments that took place in 2005 have an effect on the course of events in 2006?
One of the participants, former foreign minister Ahmed Maher, the only Egyptian diplomat to have been an ambassador to both the US and Russia, was candid about the need for "practical steps to be taken by the government to implement the reform pledges outlined by President Hosni Mubarak during his electoral campaign. These steps," Maher said, "will lead to the opening up of political life." One tangible example would be "more political parties being launched."
In this respect, Major-General Ahmed Abdel-Halim, a member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, thinks "the democratic transformations that began in 2005 will only gain more momentum in 2006."
Samir Morcos, head of the Coptic Centre for Social Studies, said it was about time that "issues that needed to be reviewed 50 years ago" were finally on the table now. "The crucial domestic issue will be that of democratic transformations," he said. In Morcos's view, however, the only way these transformations can take place is by "abolishing freedom-restricting laws, especially those concerning the forming of political parties and NGOs."
The extent and nature of important legislative and constitutional amendments, suggested Mohamed El-Sayed Said, deputy director of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, "will depend on the amount of pressure exercised by political forces". The key question, Said suggested, is "whether developments will be small and trivial, or major? Small steps mean manoeuvring, going around the issues, and using different linguistic formulas, all for the sake of fixing reality in order to keep the matrix of control in Egypt as it is."
All the participants agreed that there has been, and will continue to be, more intermingling between domestic affairs, and regional and international developments. As such, Cairo University political science professor Hassan Nafaa urged Egypt to "re-build its international alliances so as to face the multitude of challenges and threats that lay ahead."
That same intermingling of domestic and international also affects the world's only superpower. The impact of the American war on terror, for instance, will continue to affect the US domestic politics, Nafaa said. "This war will continue to consume more and more international financial resources." In this respect, Maher thinks there will be "positive movements calling for revising the US foreign policies." These forces will only gain steam in 2006, which means "the US should therefore abide by international laws."
Perhaps optimistically, Abdel-Halim predicted that American military expansion would come to a halt this year, with the US resorting to political reconciliation instead. "The US will rely largely on the resolutions of the United Nations and its Security Council." One reason for this shift, Abdel-Halim said, was that in Iraq, "US troops will face even greater troubles in 2006." Maher predicted that, "unless the US alters its policy, and the Iraqi factions and sects realise the importance of cooperating to achieve their country's independence and unity, the situation will remain as tragic as it is."
According to Said, it is easy to predict the future in Iraq, since British troops will leave the country in 2006, and American troops will be largely reduced. "The security status in central and southern Iraq will take a turn for the worse, however, as internal conflicts will increase, probably leading to a civil war."
Adding to the region's woes, Abdel-Halim expects that the Lebanese-Syrian crisis will escalate. Said predicted a "coup d'état will take place in Syria, due to explosive internal and external pressures". In any case, Syria may be "exposed to international sanctions imposed by America and the US". Morcos, meanwhile, anticipates "a comprehensive restructuring of the Arab region on a sectarian basis, especially in Iraq and Lebanon, resulting in serious setbacks".
There was no doubt, the participants agreed, that we were in for another very interesting year.
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2006/776/fr2.htm