Soapbox:

Iran on collision course

By Hatem-Sedki

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The US-Iranian tug of war is not about anything but nuclear weapons. Everyone knows that, including IAEA Director Mohamed El-Baradei. Iran's conservatives want to show the world they are not an easy target. But the fact is that the Americans are in Iraq with Iran's explicit, as well as implicit, approval. Tehran is posturing on the matter of nuclear weapons, and we all know that Iraq's Shias, on orders from their Iranian-educated religious leaders, have given their blessing to the US presence in Iraq. The new leadership in Iran, tough, would have us believe that it acts on ideals, not just a crude calculation of its own interests.

The US is also pushing its luck. Washington is up to its neck in trouble, from Iraq to Afghanistan and even in Latin America, its own backyard. Washington has failed to stem terror: if anything, it has made it worse. Now the Americans are looking for a scapegoat, which is where Iran comes in. Condoleezza Rice recently told Congress Iran has been fomenting trouble in Iraq. The US wants control of oil fields from the Gulf to Central Asia and in order to secure it hopes to break Iran from the outside, through sanctions, or from the inside, through constant humiliation. It is an old tactic, previously employed by the Americans during Mosaddeq's time.

The Iranians think they have a trump card in their hand. There is a large Shia community and 150,000 US soldiers just across the borders, a volatile mix if ever there was one. But when push comes to shove the Iranians may be in for a surprise. The Iraqis have their own mind and it is probable that they are tired of being pushed around.

This week's Soapbox speaker is a civil engineer who writes on domestic and regional politics.

Al-Ahram Weekly Online : Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2006/786/op7.htm