The seventh war
By El-Sayed Eleiwa
The guns have fallen silent in Lebanon following weeks of mayhem and destruction. For the moment, both Hizbullah and Israel are taking stock of what happened, counting the dead, gauging the damage, and picking up the pieces. Analysts, meanwhile, keep speculating on the future of the Arab-Israeli conflict and whether a settlement is in the offing.
Let's take a moment to think of the history of war in this region. Israel's expansionist plans reached a climax during the 1967 War and began gradually ebbing in 1973. The war that has just ended in Lebanon was the sixth in the region and perhaps not the last. One of the reasons the conflict is likely to flare up is that both Hizbullah and Israel claim to have won it. Both seem to be convinced that they're entitled to a trophy for their exploits in the recent round of fighting. This alone can trigger further hostilities.
The war ended when the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1701. The problem is that resolution was not only vague but also biased to Israel. Resolution 1701 left the door open to interpretations and violations, simply because it offered no mechanism for Israel's withdrawal. The resolution provided no measures for a prisoners' swap and had no provisions for rebuilding or compensating Lebanon. The Lebanese government is still faced with the momentous task of imposing its sovereignty over all the country, a task that runs into well-known obstacles
The Arab-Israeli conflict has complex historic, ethnic, economic and cultural roots -- none of which have been adequately addressed. The way the conflict is being managed means that sporadic confrontations are to be expected. Hizbullah's brilliant military performance has revived the spirit of Arab and Islamic resistance, awakened old grievances, and spawned new vendettas. So the question is not whether a seventh war is to be expected. The question is when.
This week's Soapbox speaker is professor of political science at the Helwan University .
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2006/809/op7.htm