What's next?
Saved from its internal crisis, Israel may use the fragmentation of Palestinian unity to force through a peace deal to its liking, writes Emad Gad*
Last week, things changed for Israel. Domestically, Shimon Peres won the presidency uncontested, after rival candidates conceded on his behalf, and Ehud Barak won the leadership of the Labour Party in a second round of voting. Following his victory, Barak assumed the defence portfolio, replacing Amir Peretz. Regionally, things went well for Israel, especially when Hamas loyalists from Al-Qassam Brigades and the Executive Force seized the offices of the Palestinian Authority and the security services. Hamas is now in full control of Gaza and Fatah is out of the way.
Those developments offered Israel the opportunity it had been waiting for since the Vinograd Report detailed its mishaps during the war with Hizbullah in July and August 2006. The incidents in Gaza, and the subsequent decision by President Mahmoud Abbas to declare a state of emergency and form a new government under Salam Fayad, offered Israel a way out of its tribulations. It may have also given it an opportunity to push through a political settlement, one that the Palestinians rejected in the past.
For Israel, the Gaza incidents were a cause for celebration. As the Israeli government struggled to put its house in order, clashes broke out between Fatah and Hamas, culminating in an attack by Hamas supporters on security offices and government buildings, including the headquarters of President Abbas. The ferocity of the Hamas attacks resulted in a situation that can only be described as "disengagement" between the West Bank and Gaza. Hamas established full control over Gaza, and Fatah supporters left in a hurry. In the West Bank, Fatah members retaliated with attacks on Hamas members and offices.
When President Abbas issued a decree dissolving the government of Ismail Haniyeh, the latter refused to acknowledge the state of emergency and said he was staying in his post. So now we have two separate Palestinian enclaves: a Hamas-controlled Gaza and a Fatah-controlled West Bank. The Arab League gave up on mediation and Egypt pulled out its security delegation and diplomats from Gaza.
Soon it became clear that Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan were backing President Abbas and his government, acknowledging them as the only legitimate Palestinian representatives. The US and Europe were quick to voice support for Abbas and promise a lifting of the blockade in force since March 2006, when Hamas won the elections and formed its government.
The Hamas movement is now trapped in Gaza, vulnerable to Israeli siege from the north, east and west. Gaza's borders with Egypt are manned through an intricate process involving Europeans and Israelis. Gaza is a small area, only 360 square kilometres, with 1.5 million inhabitants. It is one of the world's most densely populated areas and dependent on Israel for water, electricity and fuel. Gaza also needs to use Israeli controlled areas for communication with the West Bank and for transporting its meagre exports and substantial imports.
Recent developments, and the Arab and international backing of President Abbas, have given the Israeli government the chance it's been waiting for, a chance to separate Gaza and the West Bank. Israel can now portray Gaza as a "fundamentalist entity," one that is frowned upon by a considerable number of Palestinians. The scenes of people fleeing Gaza to the West Bank were reminiscent of war, if not ethnic cleansing. Now the Israeli media is referring to Gaza as "Hamastan", a term bearing ominous connotations.
The Israelis were quick to recognise the government of Salam Fayad. They also promised to release $530 million of frozen Palestinian assets. Speaking in Washington, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said he was willing to start negotiations with President Abbas.
With Peres as president, Barak as defence minister, and Olmert determined to stay on as long as possible as prime minister -- at least to improve the chances of the Kadima and Labour parties verses Likud -- Israel has a chance of turning things around. It is already implementing the recommendations of the Vinograd Report.
Barak is likely to impose a strict blockade on Gaza, refraining from any military action except in retaliation for rocket attacks from Hamas. The Israeli government is expected to give solid backing to President Abbas while keeping its stranglehold on Gaza. The rift between Gaza and the West Bank is likely to last until Hamas crumbles or the humanitarian crisis deepens. Either way, the Hamas government would be declared a failure, and that would send a strong message to other parties in the region, a message that certain Arab and foreign countries have been eager to send for quite some time.
As far as peace talks are concerned, one is to expect a new momentum to develop. The Israeli government may decide to use its current advantage to restart negotiations with the Palestinian Authority and Palestine Liberation Organisation. What it would suggest would be a variation on the arrangement Yasser Arafat rejected in Camp David II in June 2000: withdrawal from most of the West Bank, aside from the three major settlements, a compromise solution for Jerusalem, and perhaps some compensation for Palestinian refugees. Various regional parties, including Arab countries, may play a role in promoting such a scheme for personal motives (national security), regional motives (confronting the Syrian-Iranian axis), or international motives (pleasing the Americans). Hamas would be excluded from the scene while a political settlement is being reached with Fatah.
The success of such a scheme would depend on what Hamas might do next. It would also depend on regional developments concerning Syria and Iran. One thing is sure, however: Peres and Barak won't miss a chance to strangle Hamas, and now they have all the regional blessings they need. Eventually, peace conditions once rejected by Arafat may prove acceptable at least to some Palestinians. Whether they would stick is a whole other question.
* The writer is editor-in-chief of Mokhtarat Israelia [Israeli Selections], a monthly journal published by the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, and secretary-general of the non- governmental Arabs Against Discrimination.
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Caption: Israel's new Defence Minister Ehud Barak (centre) stands to attention with outgoing defence minister Amir Peretz (left) during the handing over ceremony at the Defence Ministry in Tel Aviv last Tuesday
C a p t i o n 2: Israel's new Defence Minister Ehud Barak (centre) stands to attention with outgoing defence minister Amir Peretz (left) during the handing over ceremony at the Defence Ministry in Tel Aviv last Tuesday
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2007/850/re5.htm