Musical chairs
It will take more than a cabinet reshuffle to impress the public, writes Shaden Shehab
"What cabinet reshuffle? Nobody knows what's on the president's mind," Minister of Culture Farouk Hosni told Dream satellite channel. Despite Hosni's words, speculation on who is in, and who might be out, has reached fever pitch, never mind that most recent cabinet reshuffles have happened when they were least expected, wrong-footing political commentators who then had to watch as the reshuffle they failed to predict saw popular ministers dismissed, and unpopular ones remain. And even if the entire government were replaced tomorrow the public is unlikely to bat an eyelid. New faces, they have learned over the years, need not be a harbinger of change.
The strongest clue that a reshuffle is on the cards is the regularity with which the national -- i.e. state-owned -- press has started to attack specific ministers. Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, who when he was appointed in July 2004 was hailed as the founder of the "Smart Village" and praised for appointing technocrats and wealthy businessmen to a cabinet that was expected to usher in a new age of technological and economic growth, is now subjected to the kind of ridicule levelled at Atef Ebeid and Kamal El-Ganzouri during their last days in office.
Nazif's government is "not at ease when it finds a glimpse of hope in the hearts of the Egyptian people who pray to God every day that [the government's] days will be short" thundered Momtaz El-Qott, editor-in-chief of Akhbar Al-Yom. "Unfortunately, and as a result of the lack of political vision, ministers have become the secret instruments that foment trouble and specialise in frustrating the public..." El-Qott's editorial line is but one variant of many that have appeared in the national press.
Another indication that a cabinet reshuffle is not far away, argue observers, is President Hosni Mubarak's call for National Democratic Party elections which will include, for the first time in the party's 29-year history, the post of chairman. Elections are scheduled between 18 August and 10 September, ahead of the party's ninth congress on 3 November. Speculation is rife that a reshuffle will accompany the internal changes within the NDP in an attempt to paint a picture of major changes in the leadership of the country.
Political pundits, though they agree a reshuffle is imminent, often disagree about its extent. Will it be a case of just one or two cabinet seats gaining new occupants, or is there to be a more radical shake-up?
Whether limited or not, the public is hardly holding its breath. And why should they?
"Ministers come and ministers go," says electrician Samir Ahmed, "and it always seems that they are serving the interests of people other than the average citizen."
For people like Ahmed, as well as those who have recently taken to the streets to express their frustrations, the interests of the average citizen are clear enough. They want to have water -- clean or not -- and a roof over their heads, to be provided with at least the most basic medical treatment, and occasionally have enough money left over to buy a kilo of meat. The more fortunate dream is of proper education, a transportation system that works and salaries that at least keep pace with sky-rocketing prices.
"With the kinds of infrastructure problems Egypt now faces, with the constant deterioration in transport, health, education and housing, you can't help but ask exactly what it is that all the ministers who come and go actually do," said one civil servant.
"The aim of any reshuffle will be to try and win over public opinion," says columnist Magdi Mehanna. "With almost all segments of society no longer willing to hide their contempt for a government that has presided over disaster after disaster it will be an uphill struggle."
"The job of governments in Egypt is to act as a punch bag, to take the blows that would otherwise be directed at the regime. The government is where the ruling party hangs its mistakes. It is the government that is blamed for poverty, unemployment, inflation. But the reality is that the prime minister and cabinet are scapegoats. They take the blame that should be directed at the NDP's decision-makers," says Wael El-Ibrashi, editor-in-chief of the independent Sawt Al-Umma. "The new government will stay for a while, then it will be attacked, then it will be dismissed. The problem lies in the policies of the ruling party."
For some observers the Nazif government's greatest mistake -- likely to be replicated by its successor -- has been its almost exclusive focus on privatising what remains of the public sector.
Mehanna cynically said that Egypt needs a stupid government, rather than a smart one. "We need a stupid government that knows how to deal with us and feels the people's problems and works towards solving them. We don't need a government that is only concerned with selling land, banks and factories. We need a government that is kind, serving the majority of Egyptians, not the rich minority. We need a stupid government because we have tried the smart one and it failed."
Abdel-Moneim Said, a member of the NDP's influential Policies Committee, disagrees. Those critical of Nazif's government, he says, should specify what kind of policies should be changed and not criticise for the sake of criticism. "For the government to improve the infrastructure and other sectors it needs more money. But if it were simply to rob one sector to put money in another nothing will change." The only solution, says Said, is to privatise all infrastructure sectors. "We need a courageous government that is ready to take a leap towards privatisation and not a step back towards socialism. Until that happens nothing will change." (see Quit blaming Nazif)
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2007/857/fr1.htm