Tensions lie ahead
As Abdullah Gul becomes Turkey's president, the military sends unequivocal signals of warning, writes Gareth Jenkins
Former foreign minister, Abdullah Gul was finally appointed as Turkey's 11th president on 28 August, four months after his previous attempt triggered an intervention from the Turkish military, forcing the ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP) to call early general elections.
After the first two rounds of voting in the Turkish parliament proved inconclusive, Gul was elected in a third round when he received 339 votes, comfortably clear of the required majority of half of the 550-member parliament. Sabahattin Cakmakoglu of the Nationalist Action Party (NAP) came second with 70 votes, ahead of Tayfun Icli of the Democratic Left Party (DLP) with 13. The main opposition Republican People's Party (RPP) boycotted the election.
Gul was duly sworn in as president on Tuesday evening, bringing to an end one of the longest and most contentious presidential elections in the country's history. Like most of the leadership of the JDP, Gul comes from a radical Islamist background. In the 1990s he was a member of a series of parties that made little secret of their desire to abolish the principle of secularism enshrined in the Turkish constitution by the republic's founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. In recent years, both Gul and Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan have repeatedly claimed that they have left their radical past behind and are now committed to secularism. However, many in Turkey's secular establishment, particularly its still powerful military, do not believe them. In addition, Gul's wife, Hayrunnisa, chooses to veil. To hard- line Turkish secularists, having a veiled first lady would, in itself, be a violation of secularism.
Under the Turkish constitution, the presidency is largely a ceremonial post. However, the president does have the right to veto laws and bureaucratic appointments; powers that Gul's predecessor, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, used frequently both to block legislation and prevent the JDP from appointing party supporters to high-ranking positions in the civil service. But on 22 July, the JDP was returned to power with nearly 47 per cent of the popular vote. Turkish secularists fear that the JDP, now that it controls both the government and the presidency, will slowly begin to chip away at the principle of secularism and ease restrictions on the expression of Islamic identity in public life.
When Gul first stood for the presidency in April 2007, the Turkish military issued a statement implicitly threatening a coup if he was elected. However, JDP's landslide election victory in July left it with little room for manoeuvre. Not only did the JDP receive the support of nearly one in two of the Turkish electorate, but also a recent opinion poll suggests that most Turks simply do not share the military's concerns. In a survey conducted by the Konda research company on 18 August, only 19.8 per cent of respondents said that they were worried by the prospect of a veiled first lady, compared with 72.6 per cent who considered it "normal", and 7.6 per cent who were undecided.
Nevertheless, on 27 August, General Yasar Buyukanit, chief of the Turkish General Staff (TGS), issued a strongly worded statement warning that what he described as "centres of evil" were trying to undermine the "Ataturkist system of thought". He accused unnamed elements -- which are widely presumed to include the JDP -- of being unable to "internalise the unitary nature of the Turkish state" and "systematically trying to wear away the principle of secularism" while attacking the TGS as its primary guardian. Buyukanit warned that the TGS "would not be intimidated by attacks and treachery" and that it was as ready as it has ever been to "fulfil its duty to preserve and protect the Turkish Republic as a democratic, social and secular state in line with the Ataturkist system of thought."
In the run-up to the presidential vote in parliament, many JDP supporters argued that hard-line secularists would eventually come to terms with Gul's presidency. But the vehemence of Buyukanit's statement leaves little doubt that, although it may have lost the first battle, the Turkish military is now preparing for a long war. How and when this war will be fought currently remains unclear, although initially it is likely to be a war of words, gestures and symbols rather than a trial of strength. The military has already indicated that it will boycott any ceremony or state function attended by Mrs Gul.
But the real question is whether the TGS will be prepared to take the standoff one step further. In the short term, the military is likely to be reactive rather than proactive, waiting for Gul, or the JDP, to mount what it would regard as a challenge to secularism before adopting counter-measures. However, even if there is no direct confrontation, over the months ahead Turkish politics look set to be overshadowed by severe tensions between the military and civilian authorities.
An Iraqi soldier secures the area in front of a large billboard bearing a portrait of Imam Hussein and Iraqi radical Shia clerics Ayatollah Mohamed Baqer Al-Sadr and Moqtada Al-Sadr in Najaf, south of Baghdad (photo: AFP)
Al-Ahram Weekly Online : Located at: http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2007/860/re81.htm